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Chasing the Holy Grail of Decision Making – Predicting Decision Quality

At Fingertip our biggest dream is this: is it possible to leverage artificial intelligence to predict the result of our decision before it is made? Quite obviously, the answer to such an overarching question has to be a resounding ”no”. Decisions are made under a fog of uncertainty and their results are frustratingly often affected by conditions beyond our control.

The mismatch between inputs and out is large as the results of decisions are often on wildly different scales: we don’t measure whether person A is a good hire the same way we measure whether marketing campaign B increased our sales of product C by x percentage points.

We can, however, attempt to hit a more moderate goal of predicting how our decision-making process is. And for this task, Fingertip has collected pretty unique data, as we have already glimpsed during a previous instalment of the scientific research blog series.

Back then, we looked at how the number of people involved in a decision correlates with the mood around the decision. But ”mood” is only one of a number metrics our users can evaluate in Fingertip.

Fingertip is a software built around our core ideology of social decision-making in which evaluating both the decision-making process and the result is an integral part. Indeed, the software is actively built to facilitate this and prod users to evaluate their decisions on a wide array of dimensions. This provides a treasure trove of data on how good the users find individual decisions to be.

Actually, the wealth of available metrics is both a blessing and a curse – rarely all of them are filled, leaving a lot of blanks on individual variables. There is also the issue of which is the metric we should predict on, mood, trend or process quality? For modelling purposes, the range of decision quality metrics are minnowed down to one all-encompassing number by averaging all aspects that have been evaluated. This value ranges from 0-5 with larger numbers indicating better decisions.

Obviously, how a decision pans out is affected by a whole range of variables and not merely by the count of people involved. We can for example see how much discussion has been held around the decision and the sentiment of those conversations, how often the decision is viewed, how many decisions the accountable has been involved in and whether the decision is part of larger Plan object or not. The data that Fingertip stores is never the whole picture of the decision-making process, but it is complete enough for clear patterns to emerge.

Using a range of predictor variables, we can train a model to predict how good a decision might be based on its attributes. To evaluate the model fit, we split a subset of observations that is not used for model training so we can see how well the model performs by comparing predicted values with the observed.

As we can see from the plot above, the model is far from infallible, but it is clearly far better than random guessing. The mean absolute error is slightly above 0.5 which means that average prediction is about 0.5 points off the mark.

As our dataset grows, our predictions will become more and more accurate. We also continuously attempt to improve our model, with the final aim of getting one to run in our software so all our users can benefit from the insight given by the AI assistant.

Our dream is not to let the machines make your decisions for you. That, alas, belongs to science fiction. Our dream is to augment, not replace, our human intelligence with machine intelligence. As the covid-19 pandemic has brutally shown, we need all the help we can get to make the correct decisions.

Kiitos tarjouspyynnöstäsi!

Riennämme nyt laatimaan sinulle tarjousta. Saat sen viimeistään huomenna tai heti kohta viikonlopun jälkeen.

Sillä välin voit tutustua videopankkiimme tai lukea johtamisen taidoista.

Terveisin,
Sanna, JP ja Milla

P.S. Jos tarjousta ei kuulu, tarkista roskapostilaatikkosi. Ellei sieltäkään löydy, kilauta tai chättää rohkeasti meillepäin.

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      Strategy group deployment package

      • Modelling strategic objectives and projects in Teams and Fingertips
      • 3 preparatory working meetings with the strategy team
      • Playbook for strategy implementation

      First year only 9 900 € (norm 19 900 €).

      Saisinko tarjouksen Fingertip for Teams –ratkaisusta strategiaryhmämme käyttöön seuraavin speksein:

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        Strategiaryhmän käyttöönottopaketti

        • Strategisten tavoitteiden ja hankkeiden mallintaminen Teamsiin ja Fingertipiin
        • 3 valmentavaa johtamisen palvelumuotoilutapaamista strategiaryhmän kanssa
        • Omat strategian jalkautuksen pelisäännöt

        Ensimmäinen vuosi vain 9 900 € (norm. 19 900 €), jos aloitatte Fingertipin käytön 15.1.2023 mennessä.

        Saisinko tarjouksen Fingertip for Teams –ratkaisusta strategiaryhmämme käyttöön seuraavin speksein:

          *Organisaatio:

          *Organisaation koko:

          *Johtoryhmän koko:

          Terveisin:
          *Nimi:

          *Titteli:

          *Työsähköpostiosoite:

          Puhelin:


           

          Strategiaryhmän käyttöönottopaketti

          • Strategisten tavoitteiden ja hankkeiden mallintaminen Teamsiin ja Fingertipiin
          • 3 valmentavaa johtamisen palvelumuotoilutapaamista strategiaryhmän kanssa
          • Omat strategian jalkautuksen pelisäännöt

          Ensimmäinen vuosi Kasvuryhmäläisille vain 9 900 € (norm. 19 900 €), jos aloitatte Fingertipin käytön 15.1.2023 mennessä.

          Saisinko tarjouksen Fingertip for Teams –ratkaisusta strategiaryhmämme käyttöön seuraavin speksein:

            *Organisaatio:

            *Organisaation koko:

            *Johtoryhmän koko:

            Terveisin:
            *Nimi:

            *Titteli:

            *Työsähköpostiosoite:

            Puhelin:


             

            Power Apps and Teams the winning platform for low code enterprise solutions

            Power Platform is the low code platform that enables almost anyone start creating workflows and programs in Microsoft's ecosystem. Gartner recently announced an estimate, that 70% of enterprise software would be built in low code or no code by 2025. Additionally, 97% of the Fortune 500 are utilizing the Power Platform to boost their business processes.

            In this speech, our CEO Jaakko Pellosniemi will dive into the capabilities of low code, and tell the story of how Fingertip took the low code approach with the Power Platform to create an entire product and a business model that can be scaled.

            Come see it live at the Microsoft Corner of Slush, on Thursday the 17th of November at 12:30, and on Friday the 18th of November at 11:30.

            Hybrid era leadership - better way to lead in Microsoft Teams

            The latest Work Trend Index by Microsoft discovered an alarming fact in hybrid and remote work contexts. There's a great disparity in the self-reported productivity of knowledge workers (87% report being productive) and leaders' trust in their emploees' productivity (12% have faith their people are productive). Microsoft has dubbed this phenomenon as the 'Productivity Paranoia'.

            Thus we've seen many companies plead to their employees to return to the office (latest notable being Twitter after Elon Musk takeover). Many of those who have gotten used to the new normal are not caving in, and rather choose to employ themselves elsewhere to be able to enjoy the perks of remote working.

            There's also another way. Fingertip bridges the productivity gap between employees and leaders with a transparent, accountable, collaborative and documented platform that integrates to Teams. Our CEO Jaakko Pellosniemi will digest the productivity paranoia and the way Fingertip solves it while catering to the needs of each stakeholder in the equation.

            Come see it live at the Microsoft Corner of Slush, on Thursday the 17th of November at 15:00, and on Friday the 18th of November at 15:30.

            Saisinko tarjouksen Fingertip for Teams –ratkaisusta strategiaryhmämme käyttöön seuraavin speksein:

              *Organisaatio:

              *Organisaation koko:

              *Strategiaryhmän koko:

              Terveisin:
              *Nimi:

              *Titteli:

              *Työsähköpostiosoite:

              Puhelin:

              Lähettämällä viestin, hyväksyt Fingertipin tietosuojalausekkeen (ENG) ehdot.
              Vastaamme kaikkiin pyyntöihin 24 tunnin sisällä.


               

              Saisinko tarjouksen Fingertip for Teams –ratkaisusta johtoryhmämme käyttöön seuraavin speksein:

                *Organisaatio:

                *Organisaation koko:

                *Johtoryhmän koko:

                Terveisin:
                *Nimi:

                *Titteli:

                *Työsähköpostiosoite:

                Puhelin:

                Lähettämällä viestin, hyväksyt Fingertipin tietosuojalausekkeen (ENG) ehdot.
                Vastaamme kaikkiin pyyntöihin 24 tunnin sisällä.


                 

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