Decision Making and Scenario Planning
What scenarios have you played out caused by COVID-19? How do they impact your business and decision making?
The ongoing crisis puts us in a unique situation. The formerly stable environment we were used to is under constant turmoil and uncertainty. What happens next is by no means easy to predict, even by a long shot.
To make forward-looking decisions, we need to paint out scenarios what the world will be like in the future, post-covid. Different scenarios have different impacts and guide us in making different decisions.
Companies are now embracing remote working capabilities and tools, but will they last to the aftermath of this situation? Or will we go right back to working in crowded open offices and co-working spaces? Will the generation turn on each other, as the elderly are far more susceptible to the pesky virus? Or will humanity finally bury the pitchforks to sing together as one?
The economy and businesses are also in a turning point. Will the capitalist society crash at the face of rapid unemployment and crashing demand? Or will the economy balance itself out and rebound back even hotter? How will different companies battle the downshift in turnover? And will the governments bail them out to avoid mass layoffs?
In scenario planning, we consider possible outcomes different decisions and events might have. By assessing how impactful and how likely they are, we increase our ability to prepare for the future and make decisions to diminish their effect on us, or even benefit from them.
Being able to envision scenarios means we have the capability of seeing ahead of time and perhaps act in our better interest. Scenario analysis also states more realistically and concretely, what might play out once the fat lady has sung. Good decision making hinges on our ability to play out different scenarios and their implications.
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